Since everyone else in the world seems to think they know exactly what happened with the whole Trump-Ukraine scandal, here is my armchair analysis.
Trump’s fiercest foes and his most devoted followers seem to agree on one central thing: that Trump is a genius. His fans think that he is the world’s best most smartest man, when he appears to be stupid or crazy his is really just thinking ten moves ahead in a game of 4-dimensional chess. His critics think that he is a cold, calculating criminal mastermind, a rival of any Bond super-villain. Thus, in the Democrats version of the Ukraine affair, Trump planned weeks ahead of time to place a hold on US aid to Ukraine, then subtly arranged a phone call with the new Ukrainian president where he would extort a quid pro quo agreement out of him to lift the hold on US aid in exchange for fabricated dirt on Joe Biden. Genius!
To be blunt, I don’t think Trump possesses the moral or intellectual character to pull this off. This kind of villainy requires planning, discipline, foresight, and intelligence. Trump possesses none of these characteristics. I mean think about it, if Trump really was an evil genius who planned this extortion of Ukraine out weeks ahead of time, why did he do it in a diplomatic phone call with dozens of advisors present on both sides of the call. He knew perfectly well that notes were being taken and a (now infamous) transcript was being produced. Brilliant extortionist don’t extort people while others are taking notes. Add to this the fact that the transcript of the phone call does not contain any actual demand that Ukraine produce dirt on Biden in exchange for US aid. Of course, the Democrats insist that this was all a subtle game of intimidation, in which Trump expertly squeezed Ukraine through inuendo without actually having to openly incriminate himself. Trump has been called many things, but subtle is not one of them. Ultimately, I just don’t see Trump as a man who possesses the character traits necessary to pull of something like this.
Instead, Trump is impulsive, boorish, petty, ignorant, vindictive, and, above all, hopelessly self-centered. He doesn’t listen to advisors, he can’t stick to a script, he follows no plan, he thinks everything in the world revolves around his own personal dramas, and he can’t seem to discern between reality and conspiracy theories. Given this set of character flaws, here is my best explanation of what went on with the infamous Ukraine phone call.
First, I doubt that Trump understands or cares at all about US-Ukraine diplomatic policy. I doubt that he knew that the US was offering aid to Ukraine, I doubt that he knew his administration had placed a hold on the aid, and I suspect that he was simply told by some underling that he had a phone call with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy scheduled for that day and was handed an agenda for the phone call. I suspect that all of this was handled by others within the administration who may have given Trump a briefing that he probably didn’t pay much attention to.
Second, the phone call begins with a classic example of Trump’s cartoonish vision of diplomacy: both leaders heaping outlandish praise on the other and both leaders spend some time insulting other foreign leaders (take that Angela Merkel!). Then Zelenskyy transitions the discussion to the purpose at hand: US support in Ukraine’s military struggle against Russia, specifically the desire to buy Javelin anti-tank missiles.
At this point I can imagine Trump’s eyes glossing over. Could there be anything more boring that discussing a conflict between two foreign nations, a conflict that had absolutely nothing to do with the world’s most important, smartest, and best-looking man, Donald Trump. He couldn’t care less about such dull matters of diplomacy. And so he did what he so often does in speeches, press conferences, meetings, or on Twitter: he went off script. He changed the topic of discussion to something that he always wants to discuss: Donald Trump!!!!!! He started ranting about his own personal grievances and conspiracy theories revolving around his election. It is telling to read the full rant that follows Zelenskyy’s request for Javelin missiles:
I would like you to do us a favor though because our country has been through a lot and Ukraine knows a lot about it. I would like you to find out what happened with this whole situation with Ukraine, they say Crowdstrike… I guess you have one of your wealthy people… The server, they say Ukraine has it. There are a lot of things that went on, the whole situation. I think you’re surrounding yourself with some of the same people. I would like to have the Attorney General call you or your people and I would like you to get to the bottom of it. As you saw yesterday, that whole nonsense ended with a very poor performance by a man named Robert Mueller, an incompetent performance, but they say a lot of it started with Ukraine. Whatever you can do, it’s very important that you do it if that’s possible.
This is the incoherent ravings of a kooky conspiracy nut, not a subtle extortion by a criminal genius. While it is difficult say exactly what Trump’s point is, it seems to be about the debunked theory that Crowdstrike, a cybersecurity firm hired by the DNC to investigate the breach of its servers, was really based in Ukraine and involved in a plot to frame Trump for colluding with the Russians. Yet he could not even manage to articulate that. Its as if the President of the United States said to the President of Ukraine, “I want your help . . . important investigation. A lot of people say . . . the smartest people . . . that the same people who killed JFK – great guy real family man – and faked the moon landing . . . I mean everyone knows the moon is made of cheese . . . caused 9/11 because JET FUEL CAN’T MELT STEEL!!!!!!!”
I can only imagine what Zelenskyy must have been thinking. He needed Javelin missiles and other US support so he couldn’t afford to offend Trump. And besides, as a matter a diplomatic etiquette you can’t just tell the leader of a foreign country that he is a basket case. So, Zelenskyy did the only sensible thing, he gave Trump a bunch of vague assurances that he would look into it, that he would appoint the best investigators, and that he would speak to Rudy Giuliani and Bob Barr.
Note that Zelenskyy never again brought up Javelin missiles or any other serious matter during the phone call. And why would he? Anyone who heard that rant would quickly realize that had absolutely nothing serious to contribute to the discussion. So Zelenskyy waited out the end of the phone call with nothing but small talk, flattery, and vague statements. Because that is just what you do when you find yourself stuck in a conversation with a conspiracy nut. No doubt after the call Zelenskyy and his staff had a discussion about who in the US State Department or White House staff they should talk to about getting Javelin missiles, since Trump was obviously not the one to talk to.
Trump’s opponents get the matter wrong, oddly enough, because they think too highly of the Donald. We should all be horrified by the transcript of that phone call with Zelenskyy, but not because Trump is some brilliant tyrant with a master plan to destroy the Republic. We should be horrified because the President of the United States is a self-absorbed conspiracy theorist who doesn’t even have discipline or self-control to hide this fact from foreign leaders. What’s more, he doesn’t even seem self-aware enough to know how this looks to others or that his political enemies would use this to destroy him.
Unfortunately, Trump’s enemies have been so obsessed with removing him from office that they have spent the past three years obsessing over an absurd conspiracy theory about how the President of the United States was really a Russian plant.
Sadly, it seems that we are all doomed to be governed by conspiracy nuts.